[BULLISH] EUR/USD Analysis


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Thread: EUR/USD Analysis

  1. #1
    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    EUR/USD Analysis

    The long-term trend remains bearish in the big picture though prices remain within a large down AB swing.

    The Daily chart on EURUSD continues to imply a downward bias in EURUSD as price remain in a down ABCD pattern.

    The 4 hour chart also shows prices inside the most recent down AB range implies that the downtrend remains in place.

    EURUSD in on the 2 hour remains within the down AB swing as price have reentered the recent choppy trading range. Clearing 1.3050 on a sustained basis implies further downside potential.

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  3. #2
    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    The direction for today has been bullish as bears failed to take prices lower through recent December lows.


    The Daily chart suggests that the long-term trend remains down though sideways in the short-term.

    The 4 hour chart suggest the that prices found support at a Fibonacci retracement level from November low to December's high though price remain as well inside a down AB price swing.

    The short-term direction has been bullish as EUR found support along a recent uptrendline. The long-term trend remains down while recent price action suggests a choppy trading range.

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  4. #3
    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    The long-term picture remain bearish though recent rally implies that there is risk to the upside for possible tests of resistance on the daily chart.

    The long-term picture implies further downside potential in EUR though short-term has bulls looking to test recent resistance levels.

    EURUSD in short-term has been making higher highs and lows though price remain within a larger down AB swing.

    The bulls have scored a point to a new high in the short-term as price remain above inner uptrendline support. Breaking this level implies a move back into recent trading range.

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  5. #4
    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    The daily EURUSD chart shows that prices remain within a down AB pattern though recent EUR strength suggests that we cannot rule out a retest of the broken uptrendline.

    The EURUSD 4 hour chart has price making higher lows and highs in the short-term as bulls look for a c from which to form support for a move higher.

    The 2 hour chart shows that prices are in an up ABCD pattern while holding above a steep inner-uptrendline. For now, buying bullish patterns on dips is preferred though a break into the sell-zone of the inner uptrendline implies a move to the outer.

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    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    Based on the fact that EURUSD is attempting to form lower highs and higher lows on the daily, it appears that EURUSD is in a large pennant with potential to move to the bottom of range if the recent high holds.

    Consideration of the EURUSD 2 hour chart also implies that if the recent high for the day holds along with price breaking into a sell zone in relation to a broken inner-uptrendline, we see potential for prices to wave to the bottom end of the range toward the 1.3150/70 area. Additionally, prices have crowned the inner-uptrendline as we look for rallies and bearish candlestick formation to be opportunities to sell for dips lower.

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    Last edited by Sam Sego; 01-04-2011 at 04:19 PM.

  7. #6
    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    EURUSD remains within a pennant as can be seen on the daily chart as yesterday's projected move to 1.3150/70 has come to fruition.

    Since prices have reached the bottom of the pennant, there is potential for rallies from recent support while breaking the steep inner-downtrendline implies further trading within the pennant to the north.

    Otherwise, if prices break into the sell-zone below the up pennant line, we look for a continuation of the long-term bearish trend.

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  8. #7
    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    EURUSD scored a new low for the the downtrend on the day though they have pulled back forming a bullish engulfing candle on the 4 hour. For now, bears remain in control though we look for selling opportunities on rally retracements at higher levels to join the downtrend.

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    Forex Analyst FX-Pathfinder's Avatar
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    EUR/USD Daily time frame has just scored a bearish point and is pulling back. We have marked in red a level of past support which can act as future resistance at price point 1.3055.

    We can expect the market to pull back bullish to that point where we will want to turn to the smaller time frames of the 60 minute time frame and look for a bearish reversal.

    On the 60 Minute time frame we havea down ABCD Swing with our A = 1.3191 B = 1.2967 and our C pull back not yet confirmed. We can start to look for our C pull back to be around the price point 1.3055 which would be around a .382 pull back.

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    EUR/USD Daily time frame market is making lower lows and lower highs. Currently this market is pulling back to form a high lower then the last high which we are going to wait for a bearish candlestick formation to short long term.


    240 Minute time frame, we can see the market has broken the down trend line. The down trend line was a very aggressive down trend line and we were expecting the market to break it towards the north. We have past support marked which can act as future resistance and push this market back down at price point 1.3162

    Looking at the 60 Minute time frame and we have a down ABCD swing with our A = 1.3191 B = 1.2967. Our C pull back is not yet confirmed. We can wait for a bearish candlestick formation or for the market to break the up trend line and enter into the sell zone before looking to short this market.

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    Last edited by FX-Pathfinder; 01-14-2011 at 04:52 PM.

  11. #10
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    fyi - Your charts for 1/12 eurusd are other currency pairs. Could you repost..thanks!


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