[BEARISH] JPY/USD Analysis


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Thread: JPY/USD Analysis

  1. #1
    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    JPY/USD Analysis

    The long-term downtrend in USDJPY resumed over the last week as bears look to make gains in the big picture.

    The daily chart shows us that recent support as given way to a long-term downtrend ABCD pattern though an outer uptrend holds at time of posting.

    The 4 hour USDJPY has the market currently reacting off of .618 Fibonacci support at 81.87.

    The 2 hour shows that bears are in control as we look focus on selling bearish candlestick formations on retracements and downtrend ABCD patterns.

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    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    The USDJPY has continued its recent down swing after forming resistance at .618 of last downswing on short-term charts.

    USDJPY remains bearish in the big picture as shown on the daily chart with prices remaining within a large AB downswing.

    The 4 hour chart shows that all uptrendline have been broken as prices wave lower making lower highs and lower lows.

    The 1 hour chart shows the recent bearish engulfing candle at .618 of the recent AB downswing as bears target extentions at 81.50 & 81.09. Below inner downtrendline resistance, selling bearish candlesticks or down ABCD's on retracements is prefered.

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    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    The daily USDJPY chart shows that the market is presently rallying off of .86 Fibonacci support of the October low to December high rally. Technically, the trend remains bearish though we look for potential resistance at the underside of the broken uptrendline on the daily.

    The 4 hour chart shows that a tweezer bottom has given way to the recent rally through the inner-downtrendline. Bulls now eye a possible bullish crown formation and and a test of outer downtrendline for resistance. The 2 hour chart simply shows a zoomed in version of what is showing on the 4 hour chart.

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    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    USDJPY bounced down as projected in yesterday's posting. At present, bulls are testing the recent resistance. If this recent resistance holds, we look for a continued dip. Breaking through this resistance will have price making a new high while also breaking a downtrendline. If this occurs, we look for the potential for prices to move toward the outer downtrendline.

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    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    The USDJPY Daily has prices making lower highs while making higher lows which is indicative of a pennant. Loss of yesterday's high at 82.27 and downtrend have opened up the recent rally toward 2 possible resistance areas as shown on the 2 hour chart below while uptrendline support projects the next likely bounce up.

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    Forex Analyst Sam Sego's Avatar
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    The USDJPY Daily continues to have prices making lower highs while making higher lows which is indicative of a pennant. If prices continue to remain below 83.51 (.786 of 84.50 high to 80.91 low) in the sell-zone below broken uptrendline support on the 4 hour, we look for prices to remain bearish toward 81.67 & 80.91 support.

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    USD/JPY Daily time frame has broken a long term down trend line and has entered into the buy zone. The daily time frame has just broken the new uptrend line and is now meeting the back side of the uptrend line which is acting as resistance.

    The market is in the prime location to start to fall so what we want to look for is bearish reversals on the smaller time frames of the 240 minute and below.

    We turn to the 240 minute time frame and we can see the bears are starting to give a bearish crown formation. Step one the market has broken the upward trend line, step two the market takes out a low of support which we did at 82.87, step three find the left tip, step four find the right tip.

    We are waiting for the right tip to form then we can look to short the bear crown formation. We can wait for a counter trend line break to the south to help confirm bears are taking control.

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    On our USD/JPY Daily time frame the market is in a good spot to start to fall bearish. We have broken the uptrend line and now we are testing the back side of the trend line. We have a down A = 84.50 B = 80.91 and a C pull back just shy of the .786 making our D extension the 1.618. Because the market pulled back so deep we are going to expect a slow moving trend.

    We look at the 240 Minute time frame and there we can see the market has formed a crown formation with a down abcd swing with A = 83.67 B = 82.66 and our C pull back which is the right tip at the .86 making our D extension the 1.27.

    Turn to the 60 Minute time frame and we are going to look for the market to break a counter trend line to the south and we can look to enter in selling to the 240 minute D extension which is price point 82.39

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    USD/JPY Daily time frame is hitting the back side of the old uptrend line. We have a new down A = 84.50 B = 80.91 and a potential C pull back around the .618 just shy of the .786 making our D extension the 1.618. We are going to expect to see the bears to have a slow down trend because of the deep C pull back.


    We look at the 240 Minute and our old down abcd swing with a = 83.67 b = 82.66 C pull back the .786 D extension has been hit at the 1.618 price point 82.39.


    On the 60 Minute time frame we are waiting for the market to give us another bearish candlestick formation or a counter trend line break towards the south. Then we can look to sell.

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    USD/JPY Daily time frame is in a down ABCD swing with A = 84.50 B = 80.93 C pull back .618 making our D extension the 1.618 price point 78.72 , Looking at the daily time frame we have broken the up trend line and now testing the back side of the up trend line where we are seeing a nice bearish drop.


    Turning to the 240 minute time frame we can see the starting of a down trend with a new set of ABCD swngs A = 83.48 B = 82.40 C = .50 making our D extension the 1.618 price point 81.73. The market has all ready provided a bearish entry towards the south so we are going to look to sell all the bearish candlestick formations and counter trend line breaks the 60 minute time frame has to give us to short to the D extension on the 4 hour time frame.

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