Comments and forex-analytics from FBS Brokerage Company

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I'm glad to present in this thread the analytics of FBS brokerage company.

Analytical support is one of our strongest advantages. FBS has a large in-house analytical department, gathering top level professionals in market research. Our analysts provide round-the-clock analytical support based on over 120 local markets news sources, comments, opinions and predictions. Our analysts also provide comments for several business broadcasting companies and TV shows.

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Juergen Stark: ECB is ready to fight inflation

Juergen Stark, ECB Executive Board member, claims that the central bank will raise interest rates if necessary to keep inflation under control. According to Stark, the ECB is ready to “act decisively and immediately” on any indications of a wage-price spiral and higher inflation expectations.

In January inflation euro zone inflation accelerated to 2.4% getting above the 2% ceiling established by the central bank. Stark expects inflation to stay above 2% during 2011 and then ease down in 2012.

Hawkish comments of the EBC officials may be the kind of preparation for the shift in policy at the next meeting of the European officials that will take place on March 3 when the central bank is due to publish its latest inflation forecasts.

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Yves Mersch: hawkish comments

ECB council member Yves Mersch claimed today that the European Central Bank will likely make an “exit” statement at the next meeting on March 3 announcing the end of monetary stimulus for the region’s economy. In addition, the official said that the ECB can raise rates even before the peripheral euro area nations have finished conducting austerity measures. According to Mersch, excessively low rates can distort European economy.

Such hawkish comments made the single currency go up compensating the previous losses made as investors’ risk aversion strengthened due to the escalating situation in the Middle East, the earthquake in New Zealand and Moody's downgrade of Japan's debt outlook.

The pair EUR/USD formed a spike returning above 1.3600.

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MPC minutes will put light on what’s the BoE up to

Tomorrow the Bank of England will publish the minutes of its Monetary Policy Committee’s meeting that will take place on February 10. BoE official Adam Posen will speak today at 5 p.m. Andrew Sentence, David Miles, Charles Bean and Martin Weale will also speak this week.

The MPC members have different views on the suitable monetary policy, but the tone of the central bank seems to turn more hawkish, so the market wonders if Sentance and Weale who propose to lift up the benchmark rate have been joined by a third member.

Economists at BNP Paribas say that if the minutes show a third official voted for an increase, the market will have no more doubts about the coming rate hike from the current 0.5% level. In their view, although the rate increase will make it harder for the British economy to recover, it won’t completely derail the rebound.

Analysts at Standard & Poor’s believe that the MPC will take more time to make out how strong economic growth will be in the first half of the year. However, the specialists added that as this is the question of credibility for the BoE’s ability to fight inflation, UK central bank will increase rates by autumn or even sooner.

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Analysts on the efficiency of G20 finance ministers’ summit

Group of 20 finance chiefs convinced China in the necessity of developing an early warning system to detect when economic fault lines are opening that may affect global growth. Among the yardsticks to monitor there are, for example, budget deficit levels, the external imbalance and private savings rates.

The officials signaled concern over the new threat by noting some emerging markets are displaying “signs of overheating” and agreed to study the forces behind surging commodity prices.

The G-20’s statement maintained last year’s decision to enhance currency flexibility trying to avoid at the same time volatile movements in exchange rates.

The economists have different estimates of the summit’s results.

Analysts at UBS claim that the statement of G20 finance ministers’ meeting brought nothing new. In their view, the group itself is losing relevance as there's no sign of the establishment of a binding global imbalances supervisory system anytime soon. In their view, the currency markets are still driven mainly by policy normalization, the sovereign debt crisis and global inflationary pressures.

Strategists at Goldman Sachs Group note that there’s slow but steady progress towards better international policy coordination aiming at reduced global imbalances. Economists at TD Securities believe that the list of indicators will give the rich countries an alternative to telling emerging markets to stop manipulating currencies.

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Bayern LB: strong franc in the first half of the year

Analysts at Bayern LB believe that in the first half of 2011 Swiss franc will keep being strong as the political turmoil in the Middle East and the euro zone’s debt crisis increase investors’ risk aversion, while Switzerland has trade surplus and franc is regarded as the safe haven.

When the mentioned factors supporting franc’s rate disappear, Swiss currency will weaken and lose attraction due to the country's low interest rates, the specialists say.

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Demand for franc and yen keeps growing

As the tensions situation in the Middle East escalate, investors keep buying so-called safe haven currencies – Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Analysts at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ underline that the uncertainty is now too high and it's unknown what will happen from now. The specialists say that if Libyan leader Moammar Gaddafi steps down, the situation may briefly return to normal. However, the things may get even worse if oil refinery equipment is destroyed, note the strategists.

According to Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi, the pair USD/JPY may fall below 82, but it's unlikely to deviate from the recent range between 81 and 84.

Currency strategists at Commerzbank believe that as the pair USD/CHF fell below the key support at 0.9309, it’s poised for further declines lowering to 0.9120 and then possibly 0.9000.

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WestLB: Aussie will gain on carry trades

Analysts at WestLB note that Australian dollar performed surprisingly well despite the natural disasters that were tormenting the continent since the end of last year.

The specialists believe that even though RBA assistant governor Philip Lowe claimed that the country’s GDP could be about 1% lower this quarter, the total 2011 growth will still be almost 4.25% – more than in other developed nations.

WestLB underlines that such growth will be obtained while the Reserve bank of Australia’s benchmark rate is already at 4.75%, that’s 450 basis points above the Fed’s one, 425 bps above British rates and 375 bps above ECB’s rate. It’s also necessary to note that the Bank of Japan is unlikely to tighten its policy and lift the rates from current 0.1% level.

As a result, the analysts expect that Aussie is going to strengthen getting strong stimulus from the carry trades: investors will borrow in countries with lower interest rates investing in higher-yielding Australian assets.

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BNP Paribas: EUR, GBP, AUD and CAD will grow

Currency strategists at BNP Paribas note that Brent crude is positively correlated with the value of euro, British pound, Australian dollar and Canadian dollar.

As the technical outlook for Brent is bullish, the specialists believe that the pair EUR/USD may reach 1.3950/1.4000, the pair GBP/USD can go up towards 1.6460, the pair AUD/USD will come back to resistance in the 1.0200/55 area and the pair USD/CAD may retest strong support at 0.9820/00.

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Commerzbank: short-term GBP outlook

The pair EUR/GBP managed to get above resistance in the zone between 0.8448 and 0.8482. Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that downside momentum for the single currency is decreasing. Euro’s trying to recover versus sterling and resistance is found at 0.8530 and 0.8588.

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