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On the System Results window you have the columns trade profit/loss (P&L),
the accumulated profit/loss (P&L Accum.), then Maximum Favorable Excursion (MFE)
and the MAE Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE).
Maximum Favorable
Excursion is what was the maximum profit that the trade had before the trade
closed, on line number 5 you see a trade that lost 2.5 points (P&L) but
during the time the trade was open it was one time making 1 point profit,
that was the Maximum Favorable Excursion for that trade.
Maximum Adverse
Excursion is what was the maximum loss that the trade had before the trade
closed, on line number 5 you see a trade that lost 2.5 points (P&L) but
during the time the trade was open it was one time losing 5 points, that was
the Maximum Adverse Excursion for that trade.
click to enlarge
Click on Show, P/L chart and the P&L
Accumulated chart will show.
Y axis is the accumulated profit/loss the x
axis is the number of the trade.
click to enlarge
If you click Show and then on MFE chart,
that will show the MFE chart.
click to enlarge
The MFE chart shows in red squares all
trades that closed with a loss and in the green square all trades that
closed with a profit, the left Y-axis has the total profit or loss of each
trade. The X-axis shows the maximum profit that each trade had before it was
closed.
If you look the
trade that has the red arrow, that trade lost about 1 point but was at one
time actually making about 3.5 points profit (MFE). Look at the trade that
has the green arrow, that trade made about 3 points profit, but was at one
time making 4 points profit (MFE).
The blue line
along with the Right Y-axis show how much profit/loss that system will make
if you have a profit protection at that X-axis value.
click to enlarge
Using the cross
hair and clicking on the chart we will find that about 3.25 points target is
a good point to add a target to our system. That is 13 ticks on the mini
S&P. We will use this information later. Note that using the 13 ticks
target all trades to de right of vertical cross hair line will now have a
profit hit of 13 points. Note that even using 13 ticks as target may be you
still will have trades with more than 13 ticks of profit, in case the target
be trigger by a gap bar.
Note the box on
the top left corner shows the total profit if the target is not used and the
total profit if you use the target at that point.
If you click on
Show and then on MAE chart you will see the MAE chart.
click to enlarge
The MAE chart
shows in red squares all trades that closed with a loss and in the green
square all trades that closed with a profit, the left Y-axis has the total
profit or loss of each trade. The X-axis shows the maximum loss that the
trade had before it was closed.
If you look the trade that has the red
arrow, that trade lost about 2 points but was at one time actually losing
about 11 points (MAE) profit. Look at the trade that has the green arrow,
that trade made about 1 point profit but was at one time losing about 6
points (MAE).
The blue line
along with the Right Y-axis show how much profit/loss that system will make
if you have a stop at that X-axis value.
About 6 points
is a good value, this is the mini S&P each tick is 0.25 then we can use the
6 or 5.5 or 5 points, if you use the 6 that is a total of 24 ticks stop.
Note that using the 24 ticks stop all trades to de right of vertical cross
hair line will now have a stop hit of 24 points. Note that even using 24
ticks as stop may be you still will have trades with more than 24 ticks of
loss, in case the stop be trigger by a gap bar.
Now we can go to
our system and change it to use now a 13 ticks profit, after that our new
P&L Accumulated chart will look like the next picture.
click to enlarge
Now if we go back to our system and add the
stop at 24 ticks the new P&L Accumulated chart will look like the next
picture.
click to enlarge
The MFE and the
MAE are a very good tool to find a good point for your system stop and
target. |